IATA: Record year for air cargo demand in
Thursday, January 30, 2025 Air cargo demand for 2024 exceeded the record volumes set in 2021 by 0.5%, helped by high e-commerce volumes and ocean shipping constraints.IATA’s full-year data showed that demand for 2024, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased 11.3% compared to 2023.
Additionally, full-year yields averaged 1.6% lower than in 2023 but were 39% higher than in 2019, pointed out IATA.
Full-year capacity in 2024, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 7.4% compared to 2023.
Though growth had started to slow down in November, air cargo demand continued its upward trajectory in December, with global CTK rising 6.1% year-over-year (YoY), marking 17 consecutive months of growth.
However, after seasonal adjustments, demand showed a moderate uptick of 0.9% month-on-month.
Global capacity was 3.7% above December 2023 levels. Cargo yields were 6.6% higher than in December 2023 and 53.4% higher than in December 2019.
“Air cargo was the standout performer in 2024 with airlines moving more air cargo than ever before. Importantly, it was a year of profitable growth. Demand, up 11.3% year-on-year, was boosted by particularly strong e-commerce and various ocean shipping restrictions,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“This combined with airspace restrictions which limited capacity on some key long-haul routes to Asia helped to keep yields at exceptionally high levels. While average yields continued to soften from peaks in 2021-2022, they averaged 39% higher than 2019.”
IATA added in its air cargo market analysis briefing for the end of the year: “In 2024, the air cargo industry has made significant strides, with demand rising 11.3% compared to 2023. This marked a new historical peak, exceeding 2021 volumes by 0.5%, previously the highest on record.
“The industry showed strength despite complex challenges, ending the year on a high note with promising momentum. Global events like the Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts restricted airspace, increasing fuel costs.
“Security threats led to intensified measures, causing delays and backlogs. National elections in 73 countries saw incumbents lose votes to radical parties amid economic concerns. Capacity constraints and rising interest rates also impacted the industry’s growth.”
As previously reported, IATA estimates growth of 5.8% this year, but geo-political issues could dampen performance.
“Economic fundamentals point to another good year for air cargo — with oil prices on a downward trajectory and trade continuing to grow,” said Walsh. “There is no doubt, however, that the air cargo industry will be challenged to adapt to unfolding geopolitical shifts.
However, despite the overall global economy being robust, with IATA drawing attention to the fact global trade in goods grew by 3.6% annually in 2024, there are certainly a few red flags amongst current economic conditions.
In December, both the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index or PMI (49.2) and new export orders PMI (48.2) were below the critical threshold represented by the 50 point mark, indicating a decline in global manufacturing production and exports.
Plus, US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% in December.
In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%. China’s consumer inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% in December, marking the fourth consecutive year-on-year decline and reinforcing concerns about an economic slowdown.
Regional performance
There were few surprises in the regional performance with month-to-month tracking showing Asia Pacific maintaining the lead in demand.
Asia Pacific airlines achieved 14.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024. Capacity increased by 11.3% year on year. December demand increased 8.4% and capacity increased 6.3%.
North American carriers saw 6.6% growth last year, the lowest of all regions. Capacity increased by 3.4%. December demand increased 5.3% and capacity increased 2.1%.
European carriers recorded 11.2% growth, while capacity increased by 7.8%. December demand increased 5.1% and capacity increased 3.7%.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 13% growth and capacity increased by 5.5%. December demand increased 3.3% and capacity increased 0.2%.
Latin American carriers had 12.6% growth for air cargo in 2024. Capacity increased by 7.9%. December demand increased 10.9%, the highest of all regions and capacity increased 8.4%.
African airlines saw 8.5% growth and capacity increased by 13.6%. December demand decreased by -0.9%, the lowest of all regions and capacity increased 1.8%.
International routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for the 17th consecutive month with a 7% year-on-year increase in December.
IATA said: “Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.”